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Market Bugle - by Mike Landfair

Sobering Thoughts From Bank Analyst

November 21st 2008 19:44
Apropos, of the last post about Citigroup, JJ Hornblass posts about Credit Losses Seen Doubling in 2009. Christopher Whalen, director of sales and marketing at Institutional Risk Analytics offers a very sobering outlook for credit losses in the financial arena going forward,

Here are a couple highlights of his assessment:

“we are about halfway through” the credit loss cycle

subprime credit losses won’t peak until next year.

Credit losses will go to 4% from 2%


We have a $32.5 Trillion problem with credit default swaps

Whalen sees AIG still going into bankruptcy (U.S. taxpayers will have wasted at least $150 Billion)

Finally, ALL current capital at banks will need to be replaced. All!

No Obama or any other politician has a fix. Only the market and time will do the job.


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