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Market Bugle - by Mike Landfair

Retail Sales Down 8.3%

August 13th 2009 22:28
Prior to the market opening,

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.3 percent (±0.7%) below July 2008.

What instantly became the headline was "July Retail Sales Fall 0.1%". You see whar they are reporting is a drop from June. They bury the real story which is sales year over year were down 8.3%! According to the report unadjusted retail sales


Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from June 2009 and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year

I have long been a critic of this kind of reporting. I've seen it done with trade deficit figures and the year ago comparables are just buried.

One who keeps such records reports unadjusted retail sales from the commerce department shows tthe period for 6/30/2009 announced on 7/14/2009 was 350,681,000,000 vs 380,431,000,000 (the comparable period last year) was -7.82%.

The commerce department shows the period for 7/31/2009 announced unadjusted retail sales on 8/13/2009 as 355,243,000,000 vs 385,909,000,000 (the comparable period last year) -7.95%.

I think year over year numbers give a much more complete picture and doesn't sugar-coat the fact that retail has been hit hard. Even though some are saying the recession is over, it's hard to see any evidence in the numbers.

Please enjoy the article and comment below, follow me @movermike and Khrono Stock
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