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Market Bugle - by Mike Landfair

RBS Is Yelling

June 18th 2008 19:51
Chicken Little

It's all over the news outside of the U.S., but not nuch play here.

The story is RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor of the Telegraph in the UK.


A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Bill Murphy of GATA and Le Metropole Cafe says the story is on Canada’s BBN financial news channel. Googling the headline I'm seeing FN Arena News, Australia report on the story 11 hours ago and only Forbes picking up the story here. The Street.com's Doug Kass writes that the story was released on June 11th and he cautions,

... that the Royal Bank of Scotland statement was originally released on June 11 and (Bob) Janjuah, (the bank's credit strategist) has been heralding Armageddon for over a year now. Markets usually don't crash when RBS is yelling "fire."


I did take a look at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 (see chart) and you can make a great case that the index put in a double top in 2007, broke down, has now rallied to the place where it broke down and is poised for a 350 point fall to 1100. Doug Kass has a point. Gurus don't usually warn that the sky is going to fall before the sky falls.

Stay tuned!
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