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Market Bugle - by Mike Landfair

Is it time to buy gold?

July 20th 2010 14:50
Gold


It would appear that the euphoria over gold has quickly diminished and many of gold's greatest proponents, who were calling for gold to go over $2,000 an ounce, appear to be disheartened and shell-shocked by the recent sharp downturn in gold.

There's an old adage in trading and it goes like this, "they slide faster than they glide." This is true of all markets and what it means is they go down faster than they go up.


In Adam Hewison's new video on gold, he shares with you some of the thoughts he has right now on this market. We could be looking at some great buying opportunities if just a few components fall into place.

You are more than welcome to watch this Gold video there is no charge and no registration requirement.

All the best.
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Comment by Sam Uretsky

August 8th 2010 18:49
This is an interesting technical discussion of the market forces on gold, but it reduces to a fairly simple consideration -- gold has always been a hedge against inflation. Arguably every commodity can be considered a hedge, but gold has been something of a standard.

Right now, we're threatened with a deflaionary spiral, in which prices drop and the value of money increases. As prices drop, it becomes more sensible to hold cash. Further, because the job market remains weak, the retail investor might chose to invest in equities that have high liquidity and a record of dividend payments as a means of maintaining income.

The current rate of return on treasury notes reflects a low risk of significant inflation, while political nattering about reducing the deficit effectively precludes further economic stimulation. These are all factors arguing for a period of deflation lasting 3 - 5 years in which safety investments, market essentials, may be a better choice than gold. For those unwilling to take positions in commodities, suitable equities may be the best choice -- Archer Midland Daniels for corn, Exxon Mobile for oil. Since these are neccesities, they may maintain a stable market, and they have a good history of paying dividends, which are useful at a time when income is uncertain.

Comment by Mike Landfair

August 9th 2010 23:03
Anonymous, good comment, unfortunately we disagree. If this were just deflation then you would be wise to invest in dollars or dollar denominated investments. But with rates at basically at zero, dollar denominated investments aren't attractive.

The consumer is in debt up to his and her ears and can't spend anymore so there goes retail stocks. Banks still haven't come clean on the REOs, so they offer big risk.

No, in a deflationary environment, you have to look at the FED. They are scared to death of deflation and will do everything they can to avoid deflation. It is inflate or die time, that means more and more dollars and even more decline in the value. The last thing you want tohold is a depreciating dollar. Exchange all your dollars for physical assets not financial assets and my preferred investment is Gold.

Read what Peter Schiff says on the subject: "We're in the Early Stages of a Depression" at http://bit.ly/9p3Lji

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