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Market Bugle - by Mike Landfair

Increased Risk Of Default

July 30th 2008 21:40
Fannie Maer


The New Yorker has an impressive article on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that surprised me. Entitled Sponsoring Recklessness by James Surowiecki this is a serious look at these two companies in a liberal magazine that essentially gets the history, as in how we got here, right.


Since, before I was a stockbroker, we have always been careful to tell potential investors that FNM or FRE sebt was not guaranteed by the U.S.

But in the financial markets everyone has always assumed that this demurral was just window-dressing, and everyone, it turns out, was right.

Here's the part where the light bulb went on in my head:

The G.S.E.s are curious, because there’s no obvious reason for them to exist in the form they do: instead of creating private companies to do all these jobs, the government could just do them itself. In fact, that’s how Fannie Mae got started, back in 1938: originally, it was a government agency endowed with the authority to buy mortgages, in the hope that this would expand the supply of credit to homeowners. It wasn’t until 1968 that Fannie was privatized. (Freddie Mac was created two years later, and was private from the start.) The main reason for the change was surprisingly mundane: accounting. At the time, Lyndon Johnson was concerned about the effect of the Vietnam War on the federal budget. Making Fannie Mae private moved its liabilities off the government’s books, even if, as the recent crisis made clear, the U.S. was still responsible for those debts. It was a bit like what Enron did thirty years later, when it used “special-purpose entities” to move liabilities off its balance sheet.


Do you see what happened, the U.S. off-loaded debt from its balance sheet to make it look better. Just like Enron, but more importantly like Citigroup. Now Citigroup has $1 Trillion off balance sheet that is coming home. The U.S., by passing the latest housing rescue bill, has done the same thing.

Had Fannie and Freddie been ordinary private companies, there would have been a natural check: companies with more debt are usually seen as riskier, and that makes shareholders and bondholders less willing to invest in them. Or, had Fannie and Freddie been government agencies, budget constraints would likely have limited the scope of their lending. Since neither the market nor the state checked their growth, they were able to swell extravagantly. (Regulators might have reined the companies in, but, thanks in part to ardent lobbying by Fannie and Freddie, Congress failed to provide them with sufficient power to do so.)

By May of 2008, these companies either owned or guaranteed more than $5 Trillion of mortgage debt. By bringing it back on the U.S. Governments balance sheet (our balance sheet) we have just exceeded our debt ceiling by that amount and we really owe $15 Trillion, mot $10 Trillion.

That increased debt will have enormous implications for our currency and even our credit rating. It will require higher interest rates to rol over our debt. Foreign countries will face increased risk of default.
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Comments
1 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]

Comment by Cibbuano

July 31st 2008 03:05
I'm going to read the New Yorker article.

Any suggestions as to how things should be changed? We're stuck with the system, aren't we? We can't punish the banks because that'd ruin the economy...

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